*** Newsflash *** Coronavirus - factories remain closed

[Dollstudio]

Hi,

according to our sources in China, the Chinese government announced that businesses remain closed until February 9th, 2020 (one week longer thean CNY holidays).

This was confirmed by so far three suppliers, Sino-doll, Irontech, and Doll Forever/Piper Doll.

That means that doll production will be delayed for one week beyond the end of CNY holiday.

Also, according to news sources, Hong Kong has shut down traffic from mainland China to HK. I do not have confirmation yet, but this could affect Chinese shipping agents.

However, delays in doll production are not the real problem we are facing. Since Jan 30th, the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak was declared a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern' by the WHO. The current situation worldwide as of Feb 1st, 2020:

2020-02-01.jpg (99.11 KiB) Viewed 5923 times

Source: https://twitter.com/DingYan01668803/sta ... 00736?s=20

Sandro

[Dollstudio]

Hi,

according to news sources, it is currently still unclear if factories will be allowed to reopen on Monday Feb 10th.

The South China Morning Post reports that businesses were told not to reopen before February 10 at the earliest. The article also mentions, that in some cases (in this example, Shanghai) traveling workers are required to remain "quarantined at home for 14 days before going back to the office".

BBC news reported two days ago: "The concern now is of further delays as some local authorities urge factories to remain closed" and quoting a source that "Monday is not realistic". On the other hand, "pressure grows to re-open factories" as lots of companies, including major brands from car makers like Hyundai to tech giants like Apple are affected due to China's "crucial role in the global supply chain and world economy".

Yesterday, The Verge quoted a mobile analyst that "no company right now will be able to resume factory operations at 100 percent capacity." This assessment most likely also applies to the doll business which heavily relies on the return of traveling workers after CNY holidays and workers available on location in the factories (opposed to other lines of work which can be done from home).

As far as dolls are concerned, the best case scenario is at the moment that production delays can be taken care of during February and March so everything will be back to normal in April. But whatever happens next Monday, it's clear that there will be massive delays for many orders from the past weeks.

In case that traveling restrictions, quarantines and factory closures can not be lifted soon, the order backlog will quickly pile up as some Chinese doll makers already stopped accepting new orders on Dec 16th, 2019 (for CNY holidays). That means that, at least in some cases, we already have a backlog from almost two months of factory downtime. So please prepare yourself for patience.

Sandro

[Dollstudio]

Hi,

it's now Monday Feb 10th in China. Not entirely unexpected, the factory closures are extended for another week (from Feb 10th until Feb 17th).

So far, this announcement was only forwarded by Sino-doll, but since this is a governmental decision, the other Chinese doll makers will most likely make similar announcements within the next couple of hours.

So far, extended lead times were usually limited to single doll makers, e.g. Abyss/RealDoll (according to reports from customers, around 30-35 weeks) or Sinthetics (around 2 years). Compared to that, Chinese doll makers are dealing with a moderate backlog of 'only' 8 weeks, so theoretically there is still a good chance they will catch up.

However, if all Chinese factories are affected by the extended closure periods, the ripple effects will be different than if just one company has a backlog: Chinese doll makers also rely on a supply chain for raw materials, skeleton parts, eyes, wigs, cardboard boxes etc. Right now, this supply chain is also in full shutdown.

What is probably going to happen in the next months might be unprecendented in the doll world.

Sandro

[MsStrangeLove]

Thanks for the heads up.
I have to wait a while longer anyway,
at least I can blame it on "Corona" now...

[Dollfriend]

The west is now dependent on so many goods and services coming out of Asia, I can not see how a prolonged shutdown, would not eventually effect worldwide trade ...

[Dollstudio]

Hi,

these news reports give some background:



(above: PBS)



(above: CNA/Mediacorp)

Those two reports cover the economical impact of factory closures and interruptions of the global supply chains.

However, let's remember that the real problem is still what happens to people in Wuhan.

This Xinhua clip (Chinese news agency) gives some impressions how Doctors and nurses are trying to keep up in this horrible battle:



Sandro

[MsStrangeLove]

However, let's remember that the real problem is still what happens to people in Wuhan.

Of course! However, half a million people die of a common flu around the globe each year and nobody really cares and this new virus is not much worse.
It's good that they do everything they can to contain the outbreak, but you have to be realistic and realize that this is just a political-economical decision.
The government doesn't care about the well being of individual citizens, they only care about the social-economic effects in general.
So the day will come, when they have to decide what's worse, a prolonged shutdown down of production or the virus.

And they will make this decision, no doubt and more people will get sick and die,
because getting back to work will be too soon for them, but otherwise too late for the economy/society.

[Looking_for_a_doll]

The west is now dependent on so many goods and services coming out of Asia, I can not see how a prolonged shutdown, would not eventually effect worldwide trade ...

Not just the West, countries worldwide. If you haven’t been watching the markets lately, the global economy has already been affected by this.

[dolls to the wall]

Geeze...I've seen some of the footage from the hospitals and it seems insane. Hopefully our Asian friends are safe, away from others and are feeling well. Cabin fever > novel coronavirus fever.

[Dollstudio]

Hi,

got the second confirmation that Chinese factories will remain closed from Climax Doll. The CLM factory is planning to re-open on March 1st.

Sandro

[notaflyingtoy]

Hi,

got the second confirmation that Chinese factories will remain closed from Climax Doll. The CLM factory is planning to re-open on March 1st.

Sandro

Thank you for these sober and informative updates, Sandro. March 1st is tough to swallow, but I'm glad that all precautions are being taken to ensure that the fewest possible people get sick.

I am curious if you have heard anything from the D4E factory...do we know if they are delaying reopening again as well? I am guessing that factories that reopened now might not even be able to find shipping agents to get any packages sent...

[dolls to the wall]

If anyone has any ideas of how we can help our Chinese friends, please pm me. I'd like to start fundraising, but I'm not entirely sure what we can do...Anyways, just send me a message (especially if you're in China) knowing HOW to help is the first step!

[MsStrangeLove]

I'd like to start fundraising, but I'm not entirely sure what we can do...

Go to China and volunteer. It's the only thing you could do that would really make a difference.
Transferring money hasn't helped anyone but the top 1% throughout history, besides soothing the donor's conscience.

[dolls to the wall]

I'd like to start fundraising, but I'm not entirely sure what we can do...

Go to China and volunteer. It's the only thing you could do that would really make a difference.
Transferring money hasn't helped anyone but the top 1% throughout history, besides soothing the donor's conscience.

"top 1%"? lol that's laughable. Money can buy masks, sanitation materials and can be donated to vaccine efforts. Sorry but you're flat wrong. Maybe if they were lazy and didn't want to work for money... But people who are dying by no real fault of their own is another story entirely.

Maybe YOU just lack a conscience.

[spookylittleboy]

I'd like to start fundraising, but I'm not entirely sure what we can do...

Go to China and volunteer. It's the only thing you could do that would really make a difference.
Transferring money hasn't helped anyone but the top 1% throughout history, besides soothing the donor's conscience.

"top 1%"? lol that's laughable. Money can buy masks, sanitation materials and can be donated to vaccine efforts. Sorry but you're flat wrong. Maybe if they were lazy and didn't want to work for money... But people who are dying by no real fault of their own is another story entirely.

Maybe YOU just lack a conscience.

I think you misunderstood MsStrangeloves reply. It's not about a lack of conscience. Money can only help IF it is used to help people, but reality is that donations rarely reach those that need it most.

Usually the money gets stuck in a bank account while those that need it fight with those that control it (Haïti disaster comes to mind. last i heard less then a few Thousand dollars were actually spent, the bulk of the money is still sitting idly in the account). Or even worse those that control the account just keep the money outright. Alot of foreign aid that went out in the past ended up in the wrong hands or just sitting on a shelf somewhere being useless to everyone and this has made alot of people reluctant to actualy help or donate.

Hence MsStrangeloves remark about the 1%. Money usualy goes through the elite of a country because they generally have the authority or contacts to get the money where its needed ie. government or company's etc. and idealy they are supposed to make sure the money gets to where its needed. Reality is that everyone loves to get payed (or atleast loves money), so by the time the money reaches those that need it, there is little to nothing left to provide actual help with.

Wich leads us to MsStrangeloves advise to volunteer. Its the only way to be 100% sure your help gets to where its needed most.

Anyways thanks to Sandro for keeping us in the loop.