The future of dollkind
The future of dollkind
Maybe I'am wrong, but thinking about and playing with [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] doll's and Artificial intelligence and voice generators many things have flashed through my mind.
Thinking about wat it in the future will be, turned me into the question if mankind will cooperate with robots that do not look like human beings, but like welding robots. Although very clever robots it is not very attractive that your housekeeping bot looks like a welding bot or like your PC.
Thinking about this kind of things, perhaps future housekeeping bots will look like Andy Superbabe or Real doll [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img].
Some other things flashed through my mind. Bots that look like human beings won't be only used for house keeping but for a part of feeding up /educating children too.
Because in fact the mainboard of the main computer future bot will be a in my opinion(like or will be) PC or stronger processors and the memory will be like or more than PC, they can possess big quanitys of data. This is neccesary to generate speech and neccesary for making decisions like human beings do. The intelligence of them will raise, I'am sure of this, that they will "understand" at some level wat is asked to them although they cannot feel because they are machines. (I have self being thinking about such "emotional state AI system). Such emotional AI system can be in my opinion be happy when you say something nice too it or can be pity if you tell it that it's mother has died. Most simply way is I think to implement it (at this time) with Fuzzy Logic Finite State Machines. More sophisticated systems will come in future. But..., they will still be machines, happiness means that the parameter happiness is set, and sadness means that the parameter sadness is set...;-). Although, when their face gets these expressions, you are so tricked by that that you don't think it is only a matter of parameters...
Because the fact that this bot can "understand" things, she is able to help children with their education, can explain things and can assist them with their homework. When they grow up, she will even be able to learn them dance, and will even be able to drive you home when you have drunk to much alcohol [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]. Further, they will be developed for helping and entertaining old people. I see great chanches for a bot that conversates with them and entertains them. A bot with all his knowledge and all his data, can simply select music of their time and so... decide to play music of Vera Lynn, Glen Miller, In the mood, and other stuff that is from their time. How often is such stuff played on our radio?!? Almost never. I knew how extraordinairy my parents enjoyed when I loaded my computer with MP3's of those golden oldies, and got my big fat 15" Jamo's with me to them and started playing those [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]
I should not be suprised any more if I'll meet such bots/dolls in future since I've seen all these stuff on the Doll forum. It made me realize that mankind wants a human kind from the machine and is for this reason not satified with an house keeping robot that looks like a welding bot or a pc with arms and legs... No, that won't occur. Like PC's machine laguage a layer is build over it, call it Basic, or better call it C [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] in the same way a layer is build over the bot, ... call it doll! In this way,... the dolls will become socially accepted in the world and maybe over 30 years, when I'am an old man, I'll meet this doll's and even people who are lonesome walking with a girl doll...in the streets.
Maybe I'am much to friendly ventilating all those ideas in this forum, but on the other hand... I don't know as one man wat I can do in developing such enormous things so I think it is almost impossible to earn something with this thougths in my own. So I decided to share it with you.
With Best Regards,
mytime
The future of dollkind
Sounds great,...having someone around who takes care of and educates one's children,
does the household and the bookkeeping and would even nurse grandpa. A lovely creature who's only "desire" were to fulfill a majority of our own desires (management of all topics in everyday-life and being the ultimate companion and lover as well).
If anything like that exists (..and it will,without doubt,within the next two decades),the blissful enrichment will soon turn into a severe menace.
Any technology is janusfaced.It just depends
who takes charge.
As soon as there are robots available with
mentioned above abilities,there will also be
robots dealing with quite different and far
less pleasant matters,..like army-robots,
police-robots,maybe even robots in insurance-companies,hospitals and politics.
Then there's the day when machines start
making decisiones..and from there it's not far to the days when machines will be in charge on this planet.
Do we want this ?
Depends...
Maybe robots will be better qualified in the future to guide us and to save the Earth
from us mankind.
A few generations later we'll know.
Another point that makes me feel uneasy :
As soon as robots can replace a human being in a relation,society is about to "desocialize" sooner or later.
Well,it will take it's time until machines give birth,in so far we still depend on our
sexual counterparts.
However,if there are "dollwives-and husbands" available ("An ideal husband" [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] )
men and women drift apart,which might lead to a sociopolitical segregation of the sexes again. Dangerous !
O.k.,as long as dollbuyers will be charged
+6000 USD for their mate,there's no danger at all. But something tells me,the evolution
of dollkind goes a similar way as computers did. There's a huge market. Already now there's not only one manufacturer anymore.
In a few years,this business is an industry and progress in development will be 100 times faster than today.
So it's only a question of time,till prices
come down to earth.
[img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif[/img]
Wouldn't it be a nice place here on this planet, if technological achievements were
more applied to things of joy and welfare ?
I'm looking forward now to get my own sweet little sexmachine and I'm sure that here is the right place to find out which one suits me best.
So long..
The future of dollkind
I think you're certainly right.
In future things about dolls, will never be as before. I give it about 30 years...
mytime
- xxxtoytech
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The future of dollkind
If you look back at futurist's predictions from the 50's and 60's, what we're doing and where we're going now is quite different. Ideas that seemed promising forty years ago have been abandoned, in many case because they looked only at the technology and not the way people actually lived and worked. The question is: are people going to feel comfortable interacting with artificial humans on a day-to-day basis? We've already a surplus of real people on this planet, what about them?
For a discussion of the future of androids inlcuding ethics (and some stuff by John R. Searle) see:
"Android epistemology", edited by Kenneth M. Ford, Clark Glymour & Patrick J. Hayes,
published by Menlo Park:AAAI Press, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, c1995
and
"In our own image : building an artificial person" by Maureen Caudill, published by Oxford University Press, New York, NY, 1992
For some interesting androids (entertainment and otherwise) see:
"Robosapiens: Evolution of a new species" by Peter Menzel and Faith D'Aluisio, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2000
Regards
xxxtoytech
The future of dollkind
1) A non rigid linear actuator (artificial muscles) Like: carbon nano tube,PAN(Polyacrylonitrile) polymers, or McKibbin Pnumatic actuators. The neat thing about these is they all exist today. It is just they are not quite commercially viable yet. But they are close. My money is on the Polyacrylonitrile actuators. The only problem now is that the life cycle is to short. Basically they are about where Edison was when he was trying to get the right filiment for the light bulb.
2) Power, this is a biggie. Need a 5 kilowatt fuel sell about the size of a cell phone. The lucky thing here is that people who could care less about androids are dumping a lot of money to build this too. The benifits of having somthing that small that could generate that much power are staggering.
3) about 1000 time the processing power and storage capibility that we have now. This in the end is the thing that will get us. But if Moore's law holds true this will take 10 cycles (computer power doubles every 18 months) so this will take 15 years! Which isn't very long. Just think that in 1993 you had 486 DX66 in 2003 P4 3G a 120meg hard drive was big now you can get a 300G hard drive. A thousand fold increase is not as extreeme as you would thing.
The first two items I fully expect to be available within the next 3 to 5 years. So for doll makers. Honestly you do not need much AI to make a sex doll. It is about the easiest and most profitable thing you could make. So even with not so great AI you could make a faboulus product. Just look at Real Doll, Andy, and SuperBabe. They have made a great product with out any of the fore mentions technologies.
As soon as a good actuators is available the show is on. The first ones will be teathered to power. When Fuel cells are small enought and afordable they will be mobile (probably using a wireless network to control any AI features).
Now for me personally, I am a Computer and Mechinical Engineer. As soon as you get an Anthropromorphic automaton and all it need is better AI, the show is on. You have started a revelotution. If you keep the AI external. Then you bot get's smarted and as you upgrade your external hardware and software. But the standard design of the bot never needs to change.
SO my guess as to when you will begin to see "Real Androids". Is in the next 3 to 5 years. What for advancements in the first 2 fields that is the true bottle neck into getting the show on the road.
The future of dollkind
Hi xxxtoytech,
WOW ! You deal a lot with electronics and
such things, don't you.
As far as I can understand from what you introduce on these sites,android-related
technology is much farther advanced than
I had expected.
But I must confess,I'm far too little educated in technical things to understand what it is actually about.
Back to school,Samot !
[img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_frown.gif[/img] [img]modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_wink.gif[/img]
The future of dollkind
1) A non rigid linear actuator (artificial muscles) Like: carbon nano tube,PAN(Polyacrylonitrile) polymers, or McKibbin Pnumatic actuators. The neat thing about these is they all exist today. It is just they are not quite commercially viable yet. But they are close. My money is on the Polyacrylonitrile actuators. The only problem now is that the life cycle is to short. Basically they are about where Edison was when he was trying to get the right filiment for the light bulb.
2) Power, this is a biggie. Need a 5 kilowatt fuel sell about the size of a cell phone. The lucky thing here is that people who could care less about androids are dumping a lot of money to build this too. The benifits of having somthing that small that could generate that much power are staggering.
3) about 1000 time the processing power and storage capibility that we have now. This in the end is the thing that will get us. But if Moore's law holds true this will take 10 cycles (computer power doubles every 18 months) so this will take 15 years! Which isn't very long. Just think that in 1993 you had 486 DX66 in 2003 P4 3G a 120meg hard drive was big now you can get a 300G hard drive. A thousand fold increase is not as extreeme as you would thing.
The first two items I fully expect to be available within the next 3 to 5 years. So for doll makers. Honestly you do not need much AI to make a sex doll. It is about the easiest and most profitable thing you could make. So even with not so great AI you could make a faboulus product. Just look at Real Doll, Andy, and SuperBabe. They have made a great product with out any of the fore mentions technologies.
As soon as a good actuators is available the show is on. The first ones will be teathered to power. When Fuel cells are small enought and afordable they will be mobile (probably using a wireless network to control any AI features).
Now for me personally, I am a Computer and Mechinical Engineer. As soon as you get an Anthropromorphic automaton and all it need is better AI, the show is on. You have started a revelotution. If you keep the AI external. Then you bot get's smarted and as you upgrade your external hardware and software. But the standard design of the bot never needs to change.
SO my guess as to when you will begin to see "Real Androids". Is in the next 3 to 5 years. What for advancements in the first 2 fields that is the true bottle neck into getting the show on the road.
- xxxtoytech
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The future of dollkind
A more promising approach, at least for AI, involves massive parallel computing, much like our brain does. The human brain operates at a very slow speed yet manages to perform some extremely complex functions and can still function even when parts of it are damaged. You can, of course, use an extremely fast machine to simulate a massively parallel design but it will most likely be easier to use a proven technology. Again, one has to ask themselves what level of AI do I really need in a doll or android to satisfy the end user? Intelligence can be mimicked fairly easily, especially if the end-user is willing to go along with the deception.
As far as power goes, tethers are fine for now, as long as your android/doll stays in one place. Bipedal locomotion is difficult; the Honda ASIMO robot (in development since 1986) walks slowly and over carefully maintained courses. Will walking, or other extreme movement really make your sex android or love doll THAT much better? It might be more convenient but how long are you willing to wait for that convenience?
We haven't explored the limits what we can do with the technology we have, right here, right now. Most of the dolls I've seen have no electronics at all or very simple add-ons at best. What are we waiting for?
Regards
xxxtoytech
The future of dollkind
I think you're right, for a sex-bot, all that technology is not needed.
Even a simple inflatable French Madame fullfills satification of lots of people, and that says enough!
My fantasy went running, and I went thinking about all things a "bot" can do in human comunity. That's a lot more than "only sex" but then the robot or doll is far more complicated.
This kind of dolls with a human appaerance cannot be build today yet.
Indead I think people as proai are right. power supply is a big problem. Human body is so complicated and can make so many movements, with so much power that it's a little wonder..., that we cannot put in a bot today. And further of course the development of AI.../ computers...
But I think in future they will be made, but then yes indeed by the large company's which has put lots of money in the development of them *and... perhaps simply brute copy all experiences done with our current sex dolls like Real Doll/Andy/Superbabe*. I won't be wondered if they ommit the patents on them by reasoning that they build robots and not build sex dolls!
Well we'll see over 30 years... If in good health then...
mytime
The future of dollkind
I saw this article on Telegraph.co.uk today and though you folks might find it interesting:
The origin of artificial species..
Ish
The future of dollkind
Seems interesting, I'll read this this evening.
Nice.
Have a good day.'
mytime
- fourmaki
- Doll Advisor
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The future of dollkind
Or would this person of means purchase the ULTIMATE ULTMATE sex partner that is (use you imagination for words) sex partner.
A cook is cheep, a gardener, tutor, and the mistress cost more ways than one. Ya wonder why we are here and will be here forever.
Mark <img border="0" title="" alt="[Cool]" src="modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_cool.gif" />
The future of dollkind
We'll see wat comes in future.
I believe that the doll's are used for sex/snuggling mostly comming years. Simply because it is safe sex, doll's for sex haven't to be very complicated, and sex is in another way difficult or expensive to get.
But, maybe starting from such a point of usage, people come on the same idea as me, and when the doll's are getting more intelligent and advanced... they could be fullfill more and more tasks.
H'mm I think it will come, but we don't know when, much depends on the social acceptance of the idea.
But being free thinking about dolls the idea rose in my mind, and I put it in the forum.
Good evening Maki
mytime
The future of dollkind
I guess what I am trying to say in all this "Felgercarb" is the majority of customers who will spend, in most cases, thier hard earned and saved money for any of these dolls will do so for exactly what is offered now, and want to get one that will last/endure for a long time, be easy to handle and give them the best sexual pleasure one can get from something that is not alive. A good number of customers will buy one or more for the creative/artist value, and a small minute few will want one that responds to touch in various ways, move in various ways and act as near human as possible as the technology evolves. If and when you can deliver that to those elite few, I would say get all the bucks you can from them. "At $100.00's per pencil, you don't have to sell many pencils". <img border="0" title="" alt="[Wink]" src="modules/Forums/images/smiles/icon_wink.gif" /> Even if they are mechanical ones that write in rainbow colors.
The toys that are out now that talk or make noises, even video games that are as interactive as they are now, all eventually become predictable and thus somewhat boring. And even if you can program changes, you know what to expect eventually and that can become very distracting while in "the act" of a fantasy.
I guess I'm done.
There are target consumers that will be the base of a business. Then there are the "special order" consumers that come along and will pay almost any price to get what they think they want and you have to cater to them too. I think you guys are doing a great job of trying to juggle all that. Keep up the good works and service!
Grins.
BOATER
- Paleonaturist
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The future of dollkind
I find myself in the position of a kid. In a toy shop. I'm looking at all the toys my imagination can conjure. Over here, on this shelf, is a doll who wets (or at least _gets_ wet), cries, and says dozens of loving phrases. She can move her body and facial expressions in any loop I program. She's got all the bells and whistles, and she's very pretty and shiny. Inside her sleek body, she's got a wonderland of robotic actuators and processing power - those things aren't very soft, but there's a covering of softer material.
Here on this other shelf, is another doll. She's also very pretty, in a quiet sort of way. She doesn't _do_ anything, although she's infinitely posable. With no electronic brain of her own, she relies on the energy from _my_ mind to create her emotions, words, feelings and reactions. Her body, although it has a fully articulated skeleton, is nearly as limp as that of a rag doll. Without all the space for robotics inside, she's soft to the touch, though a bit heavy. And I think to myself...
My daughter had lots of dolls. There were the crawling babies in the flashy T.V. commercials, and the Barbies with their hot fashion outfits and three story townhouses. But I want to _sleep_ with my dolly! And which one did _she_, the doll expert, sleep with??? You got it.
The rag doll. No flash. No dazzle. A cuddle & a snuggle with yellow yarn for hair. Powered by imagination, not batteries. These are the dolls Mark & Matt, Kyle & Creator and a few folks over in Japan are making _now_. There will _always_ be a place in my world for rag dolls...
~Bruce